Endnotes

2. National Research Council, Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1986).

3. Ecological economists distinguish between the total amount of economic activity (or scale) and the volume of material and energy circulating within the economy (or throughput). These authors indicate that the general equilibrium perspective embodied in neoclassical economic theory makes no distinction between the way economies of different sizes function, nor does it assign any costs to expansion. See: Herman E. Daly and John B. Cobb, For the Common Good (Boston: Beacon, 1989); Thomas Prugh, Natural Capital and Human Economic Survival (Solomons, MD: International Society for Ecological Economics, 1995); Geoffrey McNicoll, "On Population Growth and Revisionism: Further Questions," Population and Development Review 21, no. 2 (1995): 307-340.

4. Allen C. Kelley and Robert M. Schmidt, Population and Income Change: Recent Evidence, World Bank Discussion Paper, no. 249 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1994).

5. World Bank, World Development Indicators 1997 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1997).

6. United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Human Development Report 1996 (New York: UNDP, 1996), 89.

7. Robin Barlow,"Population Growth and Economic Growth: Some More Correlations," Population and Development Review 20, no. 1 (1994): 153-165.

8. Kelley and Schmidt.

9. Dennis A. Ahlburg, "Population Growth and Poverty," in The Impact of Population Growth on Well-Being in Developing Countries, ed. Dennis A. Ahlburg, Allen C. Kelley, and Karen Oppenheim Mason (Berlin: Springer, 1996), 219-258.

10. Nancy Birdsall and Charles Griffin, Population Growth, Externalities and Poverty, Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 1158 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993). 11. World Bank, The East Asian Miracle (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993).

12. Kenneth H. Kang, "Why Did Koreans Save So 'Little' and Why Do They Now Save So 'Much?'," International Economic Journal 8, no. 4 (1994): 99-111; Kelley and Schmidt.

13. Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller, "Savings, Wealth, and the Demographic Transition in East Asia," in Proceedings of the Conference on Population and the East Asian Miracle, 7-10 January 1997 (Honolulu: East-West Center Program on Population, 1997); Asian Development Bank (ADB), Emerging Asia: Changes and Challenges, chapter 3 (Manila: ADB, 1997).

14. World Bank, World Development Report 1993: Investing in Health (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).

15. Cynthia B. Lloyd, Investing in the Next Generation: The Implications of High Fertility at the Level of the Family, Population Council Working Paper, no. 63 (New York: The Population Council, 1994).

16. Barbara Wolfe and Jere Behrman, "Determinants of Child Mortality, Health and Nutrition in a Developing Country," Journal of Development Economics 11 (1982): 163-193. 17. Lloyd.

18. Allen C. Kelley, "The Consequences of Rapid Population Growth on Human Resource Development: The Case of Education," in The Impact of Population Growth on Well-Being in Developing Countries, ed. Ahlburg, Kelley, and Mason, 67-137.

19. Kelley.

20. T. Paul Schultz, "School Expenditures and Enrollments, 1960-1980: The Effects of Incomes, Prices and Population Growth," in Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence, ed. D. Gale Johnson and Ronald D. Lee (Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 1985), 413-436.

21. National Research Council, Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions.

22. Carl Menger, Problems of Economics and Sociology (Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1963), original published in 1883, trans. by Francis J. Nock, cited in Geoffrey McNicoll, "Institutional Analysis of Fertility," in Population, Economic Development and the Environment: The Making of Our Common Future, ed. Kerstin Lindahl-Kiessling and Hans Landberg (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994), 201. Carl Menger categorized institutions as either organic institutions, which evolved culturally, or pragmatic institutions, which were created to address explicit political and social needs of the nation state.

23. Douglass C. North, Structure and Change in Economic History (New York: W. W. Norton, 1981); Richard A. Easterlin, Growth Triumphant (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996), 55-65.

24. Yujiro Hayami and Vernon W. Ruttan, "Population Growth and Agricultural Productivity," in Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence, ed. Johnson and Lee, 94; Allen C. Kelley, "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature 26 (December 1988): 1713-1714; Allen C. Kelley and William P. McGreevey, "Population and Development in Historical Perspective," in Population and Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions, ed. Robert H. Cassen (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 1994), 107-126; Thomas Homer-Dixon, "The Ingenuity Gap," Population and Development Review 21, no. 3 (1995): 587-612.

25. The neo-Malthusian paradigm synthesizes: (a) classical economic concerns posed by the rapid increase in human populations and their consumptive demands upon limiting resources, and (b) a body of evidence, gathered principally during the latter half of the 20th century, indicating that the present scale and nature of human activity are rapidly degrading the productive potential of Earth's natural resources. For the latter evidence, neo-Malthusian scholars draw on the theoretical and empirical experience of the environmental sciences. Neo-Malthusians assume that certain processes--i.e., human fertility, technological progress and institutional change--are severely time-lagged, or partly or wholly outside the economic system (exogenous) and therefore constrained in their responses to economic signals. See: Carole L. Jolly, "Four Theories of Population Change and the Environment," Population and Environment 16, no. 1 (1994): 61-90.

26. Neoliberals have been variously referred to as libertarians, cornucopians, conservative neo-classical economists, and mercantilists. The most outspoken proponent of this view, particularly as it pertains to population growth, is Julian Simon. See: Julian L. Simon, review of "Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions," Population and Development Review 12, no. 3 (1986): 569-577; The Ultimate Resource 2 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996). Scholars who are proponents of this "institutional paradigm" espouse a high degree of personal freedom, free enterprise unfettered by either government or other powerful concerns, with minimal government activity in the economy. We use the term distributionists to include Marxist and socialist scholars. See: William Peterson, "Marxism and the Population Question: Theory and Practice," Population and Development Review 14, supplement (1988): 77-101.

27. National Research Council, Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions.

28. The National Research Council published its first review of research on rapid population growth in the developing world in 1971, six years after the initiation of the U.S. population assistance program. The 1971 review consists of two volumes, as does the 1986 NRC review: one volume of commissioned papers on various subjects, the other a summary of the findings. Kelley and Schmidt point out that while the individual papers (vol. 1) were largely cautious concerning future economic impacts of population growth, and mindful of the shortage of data at the time, the summary volume (vol. 2), in fact, features stronger concerns about growing populations in the developing world. See: National Research Council, Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications, 2 vols. (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1971); Allen C. Kelley and Robert Schmidt, "Toward a Cure for the Myopia and Tunnel Vision of the Population Debate: A Dose of the Historical Perspective," in The Impact of Population Growth on Well-Being in Developing Countries, ed. Ahlburg, Kelley, and Mason, 11-35.

29. Allen C. Kelley, review of "Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions," Population and Development Review 12, no. 3 (1986): 563-568; Kelley and McGreevey, "Population and Development in Historical Perspective"; Geoffrey McNicoll, "On Population Growth and Revisionism: Further Questions," Population and Development Review 21, no. 2 (1995): 307-340.

30. The United Nations estimates that the total developing country population during 1985 was 3.73 billion and 4.14 billion in 1990. The average population growth rate for developing countries during the period 1985 to 1990 is estimated to have been 2.06 percent. See United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 1994 Revision (New York: UN, 1995), 213.

31. National Research Council, Population Growth and Economic Development, 86-87.

32. National Research Council, 91.

33. National Research Council, 90.

34. Kelley and Schmidt, "Population and Income Change." The authors' analysis uses economic output data from national accounts that were adjusted for purchasing power parity to be comparable across countries and over time (p. 13). In addition, the authors eliminated 36 countries from the original 135 available in the Penn World Tables because of missing data or concerns about their reliability, extensive dependency on oil or mineral resources, and dependency on remittances. For information on The Penn World Table see: Robert Summers and Alan Heston, "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, no. 2 (1991): 329-368.

35. Kelley and Schmidt.

36. Complex systems are systems that can be described mathematically by non-linear systems of equations that involve negative and positive feedbacks. Positive feedbacks are effects that tend to destabilize the system. Negative feedbacks stabilize it. In a system of feedbacks of both types, the state of the system tends to exhibit many possible partially stable (meta-stable) states. The system may often move between those states in fashions that are difficult to predict. Positive feedback dynamics can often be entered by varying any one or all of the variables in the loop--a dynamic that is germane to economic systems and confusing to economists who have been educated to use statistical models focused on correlation and cause-and-effect. On the other hand, the dynamics of a single variable within a complex feedback loop may be such that it impedes any change in the system.

37. Birdsall and Griffin, Population Growth, Externalities and Poverty; Nancy Birdsall, "Government, Population, and Poverty: a Win-Win Tale," in Population and Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions, ed. Robert H. Cassen (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 1994) 253-274.

38. Kelley and McGreevey.

39. Nicholas Eberstadt, "Population, Food and Income," Progress and the Planet, no. 3 (Washington, DC: Competitive Enterprise Institute, 1997), 16.

40. According to the World Bank, the category of high performing East Asian countries includes two sets of nations. Countries in the first set are moderate-income developing nations, commonly referred to as the Asian tigers. [Source: Population Reference Bureau (PRB), World Population Data Sheet 1997 (Washington, DC: PRB, 1997); listed with 1997 estimated total fertility rates in parentheses.] Taiwan (1.8), Singapore (1.7), South Korea (1.7) and Hong Kong 1.2 (from 1996 data sheet). Following close behind them in economic achievement is the second set, the "rapidly industrializing countries of Southeast Asia": Thailand (1.9), Malaysia (3.3) and Indonesia (2.9). The World Bank's analysis also includes Japan (1.5). See: World Bank, East Asian Miracle.

41. Ong Tsui.

42. World Bank, East Asian Miracle; Asian Development Bank (ADB), Emerging Asia: Changes and Challenge (Manila: ADB, 1997).

43. UNDP, Human Development Report 1996, 68; Nancy Birdsall, Barbara Bruns, and Richard H. Sabot, "Education in Brazil: Playing a Bad Hand Badly," in Opportunity Foregone: Education in Brazil, ed. Nancy Birdsall and Richard H. Sabot (Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 1996), 17.

44. Nancy Birdsall and Richard H. Sabot, "Virtuous Circles: Human Capital Growth and Equity in East Asia," World Bank Working Paper, Policy Research Department (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993); World Bank, East Asian Miracle, 45.

45. Kang, "Why Did Koreans Save So 'Little' and Why Do They Now Save So 'Much?'"; Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller, "Savings, Wealth, and the Demographic Transition in East Asia," in Proceedings of the Conference on Population and the East Asian Miracle; Jeffrey G. Williamson and Matthew Higgins, "The Accumulation and Demography Connection in East Asia," in Proceedings of the Conference on Population and the East Asian Miracle; World Bank, East Asian Miracle. This research is based on an extension of the life-cycle savings model referred to as a "variable rate-of-growth effect" model, the development of which is described in: Maxwell Fry and Andrew Mason, "The Variable Rate-of-Growth Effect in the Life-Cycle Saving Model: Children, Capital Inflows, Interest and Growth in a New Specification on the Life-Cycle Model Applied to Seven Asian Developing Countries," Economic Inquiry 20 (1982): 426-442; Andrew Mason, "National Saving Rates and Population Growth: A New Model and New Evidence," in Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence, ed. Johnson and Lee, 523-570; Andrew Mason, "Savings, Economic Growth and Demographic Change," Population and Development Review 14, no. 1 (1988): 113-144.

46. Matthew Higgins and Jeffrey G. Williamson, "Age Structure Dynamics in Asia and Dependence on Foreign Capital," Population and Development Review 2, no. 23 (1997): 261-293.

47. World Bank, East Asian Miracle, 41; Higgins and Williamson.

48. Immigrant labor is affected by this relationship, as well. To discourage labor-intensive industry and further stimulate investments in technology intensive industry, Malaysia has passed legislation penalizing employment of low-wage foreign labor. See: "Malaysia: Sent Packing," The Economist, 8 February 1997, 40.

49. World Bank, East Asian Miracle, 259-266.

50. Steven W. Sinding, "Macroeconomics and Population Dynamics: A Learning Forum,"oral remarks at a World Bank conference, Washington, D.C., 22 July 1997.

51. Ronald Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar, "Death and Taxes: Longer Life, Consumption, and Social Security," Demography 34, no. 1 (1997): 67-81.

52. An example is Ben J. Wattenberg, The Birth Dearth (New York: Pharos Books, 1987).

53. Vincent Cable and Bishakha Mukherjee, "Foreign Investment in Low-Income Developing Countries," in Investing in Development: New Roles for Private Capital?, ed. Theodore H. Moran (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 1986), 94; Guy P. Pfeffermann and Andrea Madarassy, "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries, 1993," International Finance Corporation, Discussion Paper No. 16 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993), 4-5.

54. Kevin M. Cleaver and Gotz A. Schreiber, Reversing the Spiral: The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1994): 8-9, 44-72.

55. Valerie Percival and Thomas Homer-Dixon, Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of South Africa, Project on Environment, Population and Security (Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto, 1995).

56. Ernest H. Preeg, The Haitian Dilemma: A Case Study in Demographics, Development, and U.S. Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 1996).

57. Case studies reviewed in: Thomas Homer-Dixon and Valerie Percival, Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: Briefing Book, Project on Environment, Population and Security (Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1996).

58. UNDP, Human Development Report 1996, 2.

59. UNDP, 9.

60. UNDP, 78.

61. Preeg, The Haitian Dilemma.

62. Cleaver and Schreiber.

63. Kelley and Schmidt, "Toward a Cure for the Myopia and Tunnel Vision of the Population Debate."

64. United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1994 Revision.

65. UNDP.

66. Douglass C. North, Structure and Change in Economic History (New York: W. W. Norton, 1981); Richard A. Easterlin, Growth Triumphant (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996), 55-65.

67. Xenos points out that prices are assigned to goods and services at the margin only when a perception of some degree of their scarcity arises. While market forces mitigate severe, acute scarcity by mobilizing supply to address demand, suppliers will not completely resolve that scarcity because it would eliminate profits. See: Nicholas Xenos, Scarcity and Modernity (New York: Routledge, 1989).

68. For a more detailed discussion of negative externalities associated with population growth see: Birdsall and Griffin.

69. John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy, With Some of Their Application to Social Philosophy (London: J.W. Parker, 1848) quoted in McNicoll, "Institutional Analysis of Fertility."

70. Terry L. Anderson, "Water, Water Everywhere but Not a Drop to Sell," in The State of Humanity, ed. Julian L. Simon (Oxford: Blackwell, 1995), 425-433.

71. According to the Trust for Public Lands, New York City originally targeted some 80,000 acres for acquisition, but has since decided not to set upper limits on the acquisition program. The goal of this plan is to protect watersheds feeding the city's reservoirs from development, and to preserve the naturally vegetated status of these ecosystems. See: Trust for Public Lands (TPL), Protecting the Source: Land Conservation and the Future of America's Drinking Water, Report, (San Francisco: TPL, 1997).

72. Garrett states that nearly one half billion passengers were projected to board airline flights in 1996. And, according to a composite of information from the U.N. High Commissioner for refugees and Worldwatch Institute, in 1994 at least 10 million people immigrated, an additional 30 million were involved in domestic rural to urban migration, and some 23 million were displaced by war or social unrest. See: Laurie Garrett, "The Return of Infectious Disease," Foreign Affairs 75, no. 1 (1994): 69-70.

73. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, World Population Profile: 1996 by Thomas M. McDevitt, Report WP/96, 45-46 (Washington, DC, 1996).

74. McNicoll, "Institutional Analysis of Fertility," 203.

75. Irma Adelman, et al., "Institutional Change, Economic Development, and the Environment," Ambio 21, no. 1 (1992): 106-110.

76. Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), 16.

77. For example, in Africa 22 percent of all educational budgets goes to college-level education, yet only 2 percent of primary school students ever move to this level. Source: World Bank, World Bank Development Report, 1990 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1990), 33-34. This spending may provide a shortcut to better governmental and financial organizations, but it nonetheless favors the rich over the poor. Similarly, increases in gross domestic product favor investments in curative health care over preventative public health that would reach a broader segment of society. And, paradoxically, during land reform the granting of title deeds to individuals and legal use rights to groups has often been manipulated by local elites and wealthy speculators, leaving the poor landless or short of resources, and promoting resource exploitation. See: Narpat S. Jodha, "The Decline of Common Property Resources in Rajasthan, India," Overseas Development Network Paper, no. 22c (London: Overseas Development Institute, 1988); John G. Galaty, "This Land is Yours: Social and Economic Factors in the Privatization, Sub-Division and Sale of Maasai Ranches," Nomadic Peoples 30 (1992): 26-40; Maria C. Cruz, et al., Population Growth, Poverty, and Environmental Stress: Frontier Migration in the Philippines and Costa Rica (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 1992).

78. Sutti Ortiz, "Expectations and Forecasts in the Face of Uncertainty," Man 14 (1979): 64-80.

79. Jeanne E. Arnold, "Social Inequality, Marginalization, and Economic Process," in Foundations of Social Inequality, ed. T. Douglas Price and Gary M. Feinman (New York: Plenum, 1995), 87-103.

80. Manuel Castells and Alejandro Portes, "World Underneath: The Origins, Dynamics, and Effects of the Informal Economy," in The Informal Economy: Studies in Advanced and Less Developed Countries, ed. Alejandro Portes, Manuel Castells, and Lauren A. Benton (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989), 11-37.

81. David W. Pearce, "Economics of the Environment," in A Guide to Modern Economics, ed. David Greenaway, Michael F. Bleaney, and Ian M. T. Stewart (London: Routledge, 1996), 174-200.

82. Christopher D. Stone, Should Trees Have Standing?: Toward Legal Rights for Natural Objects (Palo Alto, CA: W. Kaufmann, 1974); Robyn Eckersley, "Liberal Democracy and the Rights of Nature: The Struggle for Inclusion," Environmental Politics 4, no. 4 (1995): 169-198.

83. Robert May, Knowledge and Ignorance: Patterns of Investment in Understanding Biodiversity, Resources for the Future Seminar Series (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution, 22 October 1996).

84. We obtained estimates of per capita GDP (corrected to reflect "purchasing power parity") for India, Egypt and Brazil from the Penn World Table (Mark 5.6). In this version, the maximum range of data available for any country is 1950 to 1992. The GDP per capita measure used here was the variable (RGDPCH) recommended for intertemporal time series. See: Summers and Heston, "The Penn World Table (Mark 5)": 329-368.

85. India's sustained per capita GDP growth during this period is broken only by negative growth in 1991, the year of India's foreign exchange reserve crisis.

86. Bradford W. Morse and Thomas R. Berger, executive summary of "Sardar Sarovar Projects: Independent Review," STEPS Quarterly (India) 2, no. 3 & 4 (1992): 28-34.

87. Statistical evidence of impediments to India achieving universal primary education include a persistently high and climbing student-to-teacher ratio of 48:1 (data for 1993, UNESCO), whereas in almost all South American countries the ratio is now below 30:1. Poor attendance of teachers in public school classrooms is commonly acknowledged in India, particularly in rural areas in the northern states. Colletta and Sutton state that historically, there have been strong differences in enrollments in primary education based upon gender, caste and household income, and a tendency to underfund primary education. Educational expenditures as a percentage of gross national product (3.7 percent in 1992, data from UNESCO) or as a total of government expenditures (11.5 percent in 1992) are in the low-to-medium range of values when compared with other developing countries experiencing similar rates of population growth. Source of data: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1995 (Lanham, MD: Bernan Press, 1995), 4-13. Also see: Nat J. Colletta and Margaret Sutton, Achieving and Sustaining Universal Primary Education: International Experience Relevant to India, Policy, Planning and Research Working Paper, WPS 166 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1989).

88. International Institute for Population Studies (IIPS), National Family Health Survey (MCH and Family Planning), India 1992-93 (Bombay: IIPS, 1995), 50.

89. Ashish Bose, India's Population Policy--Changing Paradigm (Delhi: B.R. Publishing, 1996) 183-185.

90. UNDP, Human Development Report 1996, 27.

91. The U.N. Development Programme measures human development using the human development index (HDI). The HDI is calculated using a formula based on three indicators: life expectancy at birth; educational attainment (adult literacy and combined enrollment ratios); and standard of living as measured by real GDP per capita in purchasing power parity dollars (PPP$). See: UNDP, 106.

92. UNDP, 82.

93. Ansley J. Coale and Edgar M. Hoover, Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-Income Countries: A Case Study of India's Prospect (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1958), 304-320.