Introduction

The question considered here--how does population growth affect the direction and magnitude of economic change today as world population approaches 6 billion--is germane to a key argument invoked to defend international population assistance programs since their inception in the early 1960s. According to what could be called the demographic-economic argument, developing countries are likely to enhance their prospects for economic development if their population growth slows. As national populations move toward replacement-level fertility‹an average of slightly more than two children per woman‹both governments and families should improve their capacities to invest in the health of each child, the education of each student and the output of each worker. For those developed countries supporting international population assistance programs, the return on this investment should come in increased trade and overseas investment opportunities, a proliferation of stable and democratic allies, a slower growth in pressures exerted on some aspects of the global environment, reduced disaster relief and immigration, and‹eventually‹an end to foreign aid itself.

In the skeptical 1990s, notions so bold, simplistic and optimistic as this have little currency. The old argument nonetheless remains plausible. The best testimony in its favor comes from the emerging industrial powers of East and Southeast Asia: South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Singapore (each below replacement fertility), and following close behind them, Malaysia and Indonesia. In each of these countries, policies and programs favoring greater access to voluntary family planning began in the 1960s, ultimately contributing to smaller family size and a reduction in the proportion of children relative to working age adults. In each, fertility decline coincided with or preceded a transition to sustained growth in economic productivity.

Such examples alone cannot prove the demographic-economic argument. The causal questions remain. How do high fertility, population growth and increased densities of population affect economic development? And how much does fertility decline matter to a developing country¹s economic future?