Population Action International

Demographic Transition

Analysts recently have determine that, throughout the latter half of the 20th century, high rates of infant mortality consistently were associated with the emergence of civil conflicts. Others have pointed to the importance of large proportions in populations of young adults in the emergence and intensity of armed conflict and insurrection, particularly where opportunities for individual economic and social advancement have been constrained.

The focal points of these theses — high rates of infant mortality and large proportions of youth — are, placed together, signature characteristics of populations in the early stages of their demographic transition. The analyses in this report set out to determine the degree to which progress through this transition influences the vulnerability of countries to civil conflict, and to examine the most plausible explanations for those influences.

Policy Prescription

Greater recognition of the demographic transition as a security-relevant process could inspire researchers to delve deeper into relationships between demographic factors and armed conflict and encourage policymakers to become familiar with the foreign policies and international programs that have influenced the speed of demographic transition.

The Process of Demographic Transition: An Idealized Model
Graph: The Process of Demographic Transition: An Idealized Model
The graph portrays idealized paths of the demographic transition's two component transitions — birth-rate and deathrate transitions — and shows resulting population growth. All countries are going through this process or have passed through it. Individually, birth-rate and death-rate transitions have taken from 50 to 150 years to complete. Some developing countries are passing through these transitions very rapidly, much faster than European or North American countries did. Population growth and decline are results of gaps between birth rates and death rates (measured per thousand people). Because death rates typically decrease before birth rates begin to decline, population tends to grow rapidly during the transition.