Historical Perspective
Analysts recently have determined that, throughout the latter half of the 20th century, high rates of infant mortality consistently were associated with the emergence of civil conflicts. Others have pointed to the importance of large proportions in populations of young adults in the emergence and intensity of armed conflict and insurrection, particularly where opportunities for individual economic and social advancement have been constrained.The focal points of these theses — high rates of infant mortality and large proportions of youth — are, placed together, signature characteristics of populations in the early stages of their demographic transition. The analyses in this report set out to determine the degree to which progress through this transition influences the vulnerability of countries to civil conflict, and to examine the most plausible explanations for those influences.
Policy Prescription
Greater recognition of the demographic transition as a
security-relevant
process could inspire researchers to delve deeper into
relationships between demographic factors and armed conflict and encourage
policymakers to become familiar with the foreign policies and international
programs that have influenced the speed of demographic transition.
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| The map shows the general location of the civil and interstate conflicts that occurred from 1990 to 2000, and the maximum intensity that each achieved in that period. A minor conflict claimed at least 25 battle-related deaths per year, but fewer than 1,000 deaths during its entire course. An intermediate conflict accumulated at least 1,000 deaths, with fewer than 1,000 dying each year. War resulted in at least 1,000 deaths during a single year. |
