Interactions of stress factors

Key demographic characteristics that increase the risk of civil conflict interact with each other and with non-demographic factors, compounding net risk for countries in the early or middle phases of demographic transition. Multiple demographic stress factors tend to exacerbate each others’ effects, expose more of a population and more geographic areas to tensions, and test developing-country governments with complex challenges.

Based on UN population data, 25 countries have reached critical levels (high or extreme stress) in three of the demographic factors considered in this report. Most are in sub-Saharan Africa, with most of the rest in Asia. Fifty-one countries in two critical-level categories also include countries in Latin America, the Caribbean and Pacific Islands.

Ten countries that have reached critical levels in three demographic factors also are experiencing excessive adult mortality, mostly due to high HIV prevalence. Perhaps because prevalence was lower in the 1990s and AIDS mortality lags nearly a decade behind an upsurge in HIV infection, statistical evidence for including working-age mortality as a risk was weak. Nonetheless, our review of this factor suggests that AIDS-associated risks are likely.

Policy Prescription

Despite momentous progress along the demographic transition in the last 30 years by many developing countries —   mostly in East Asia, the Caribbean and Latin America — more than one-third of the world’s countries remain in the early and middle phases of the demographic transition. Those that lag appear likely to sustain high risks of civil conflict for years to come. As such, few have hopes for sustaining democratization or economic liberalization.

Governments can promote progress through the demographic transition by improving the quality of and access to reproductive health information and services, by improving the status of women, and by working to overcome the HIV/AIDS pandemic.