Stress Factor 1 - the Youth Bulge

Countries in which young adults made up a large proportion of the adult population — 40 percent or more — were more than twice as likely to experience an outbreak of civil conflict during the 1990s as those below this benchmark. These youth-bulge countries are in the developing world, where youth unemployment rates are generally three to five times that of adults.

High fertility rates coupled with declining infant mortality are the major reason for high proportions of young adults. In East Asia, proportions of young adults began to decline significantly less than two decades after fertility began its own fall.

Policy Prescription

To deal with chronic unemployment of young adults in the short term, governments should invest in training and job creation, and promote entrepreneurship among youth. But necessary long-term changes in age structure in early-transition countries occur through fertility decline. Countries have promoted this change by supporting access to voluntary family planning services, increasing girls’ educational achievement, and promoting women’s access to economic opportunity. And, in a world where aids is a major cause of illness and premature death — with demographic impacts that threaten to expand already large youth bulges in some countries — governments should promote full access to reproductive health services and accurate information to young adults.

Young adults (aged 15 - 29) as a proportion of all adults (aged 15 and older). In the 1990s, countries with a large youth bulge were much more likely to experience an outbreak of civil conflict.