Population Action International : Stress Factor 2: Rapid Urban Growth

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The Security Demographic - Full Report (PDF - 13 Mb)
Summary, Recommendations, and Introduction (PDF - 1 Mb)
Chapter 1 (PDF - 474 Kb)
Chapter 2 (PDF - 2 Mb)
Chapter 3 (PDF - 1 Mb)
Chapter 4 (PDF - 1 Mb)
Chapter 5 (PDF - 2 Mb)
Chapter 6 (PDF - 2 Mb)
Chapter 7 (PDF - 1 Mb)
Appendices (PDF - 114 Kb)
Endnotes (PDF - 72 Kb)

Stress Factor 2: Rapid Urban Growth

Countries with rapid rates of urban population growth — 4 percent per year or more — were about twice as likely as countries below this benchmark to experience civil conflict in the 1990s.

Factors that have made industrialworld cities prosperous — ethnic diversity, a middle class, and proximity to political power — are potential sources of volatility for many rapidly growing cities in the developing world. A high proportion of youth, a trait of many of these cities, adds another conflict risk factor to the rapid growth of urban areas.

Countries experiencing high rates of population growth generally experience rates of urban population growth about 50 percent higher than national population growth rates. Where population growth rates have slowed, in both developing and developed countries, urban growth rates have declined.

Policy Prescription

Reviews of successful urban programs suggest that programs that improve the quality and capacity of urban governance, increase rates of job creation, and improve ethnic-community relations are likely to help reduce the risk of civil and ethnic violence. In early-transition countries, declines in national rates of population growth could help reduce risks by slowing the growth rates of urban population.

Average annual rate of change of the urban population. Urban areas — particularly those in Asia — are increasingly the principal locus of ethnic and religious conflict.