Chapter Three: Youthful Structures

Countries with a youthful age structure have made noticeable progress along the demographic transition compared to those in the very young category. Some countries, such as Iran, have experienced significant declines in both mortality and fertility rates. However, these countries have not reached the point in the demographic transition where lower birthrates have been sustained long enough to offer opportunities for major economic growth and other development improvements. Their further advancement along the demographic transition is not guaranteed and requires government intervention in order to be achieved.

Countries with youthful age structures have experienced lower incidence of civil conflict than those with very young structures, but higher incidence than countries with transitional and mature age structures. Between 1970 and 1999, countries with youthful age structures had a 13 percent probability of experiencing civil conflict, the second highest level among the four major age structure types. Although in the 1980s they experienced a lower frequency of new outbreaks of conflict than countries in the transitional category, the probability of conflict among countries with a youthful age structure increased to 21 percent in the 1990s.

Youth (ages 0-29) approximately 60-67 percent of total population
Mid-Adults (ages 30-59) approximately 27-32 percent of total population
Seniors (ages 60+) approximately 6-8 percent of total population
Demographic character Maintaining a basic pyramidal shape, but youngest age groups (0-25) flattening to approximately equal proportions of population
Population doubling time 35-50 years
Country count 27
Regional prevalence Central Asia, North Africa, parts of Middle East
Civil conflict risk 15 percent likely to experience civil conflict, 1970-99
Economic performance 3.1 percent median average annual GDP growth rate, 1970-99
Governance 21 percent likely to have fully democratic governance, 1970-99

Figure 3.1
Youthful Age Structure Profiles

Figure 3.2
Risk of Civil Conflict by Age Structure Type

Countries with a youthful age structure had an average GDP growth rate of 3.1 percent across the entire period, lower than countries in the very young and transitional categories. As economies begin to grow and fertility rates start the gradual decline that signifies the beginning of the demographic transition, it is not surprising to find a slowing median growth rate among countries in the youthful type. These countries are still relatively low income, and large groups of children and youth keep dependency ratios high and savings low. In addition, donor support has often waned and the government must be more self-sufficient at stimulating the economy, a task it may lack the capacity or resources to accomplish.

Countries with a youthful age structure are more likely to have had democratic governance than countries in the very young age structure type, just as they have been less vulnerable to civil conflict. Countries with youthful structures had a 21 percent probability of fully democratic governance between 1970 and 1999, an eight percent increase from countries with very young structures. However, countries with a transitional structure, the next category along the demographic transition, had a democratic governance rate more than three times greater than countries with a youthful structure.

Figure 3.3
Age Structure Type and GDP Growth¹

Figure 3.4
Governance and Age Structure Type