Chapter Three: Youthful Structures

Countries in Profile: Iran
Demographics Ahead of Development

By the late 1970s, Iran had reached a breaking point. While Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi's family and government elite lived in luxury, Iranian citizens faced severe economic challenges. GDP growth had been negative for three years and prices of consumer goods rose by 10 to 12 percent each year.² With more than 70 percent of the population under age 30 and a population growth rate of 3.3 percent annually, demographic pressures exacerbated the country's troubles. The situation exploded in 1979, when a popular revolution deposed the shah and installed a conservative Islamic government headed by the Ayatollah Khomeini. A few months later, a group of students captured the U.S. embassy and held American employees hostage for 444 days, marking the beginning of a decades-long estrangement between Iran and many developed countries, particularly the United States.

Iran's new regime made religious law, shari'a, the foundation of the country's new constitution, and--counter to the secular policies of the shah--the ruling clerics initially took a very restrictive approach to social issues. This included a pro-natalist strategy designed to promote population growth that lowered minimum marriage ages to nine for girls and 14 for boys and outlawed abortion (a ban that remains in place today).³ However, 10 years after the revolution, the Iranian government's attitude toward family planning and reproductive health shifted dramatically.

As a result, Iran has experienced rapid progress along the demographic transition over the past two decades.

The change in the government's attitude toward population dynamics and family planning came quickly. Six years into a grinding war with Iraq that resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, the 1986 national census showed rapid rates of population growth, and many officials were enthusiastic. They believed that a large and growing population was necessary to support the war effort and as a defense mechanism against other foreign threats. However, some government agencies understood the economic consequences that Iran was suffering as demand for public services and jobs escalated. In the late 1980s, as the country created its first development plan, a publicity campaign successfully convinced key officials that the government needed to address population. Conferences organized by supportive finance and health officials, combined with public media debates among members of the religious hierarchy, academics and professionals, successfully raised awareness of and interest in population issues. By 1989, commitments to reestablish a national family planning program--with the support of key clerics--had been secured.⁴

The national family planning program that was fully implemented by the early 1990s is quite extensive, although it neglects the reproductive health needs of young and unmarried individuals. Modern contraceptive methods are available free and at-will in public clinics, university students take a mandatory course on population and family planning, and both prospective spouses must attend a government-sponsored class on family planning in order to receive their marriage license.⁵ All of these requirements support the government's policy to encourage smaller family sizes, increase the age of marriage and first pregnancy, and lengthen spacing between pregnancies.

Figure 3.5
Iran's Age Structures, 1980 and 2005⁶

In 1980, with 71 percent of its population under the age of 30 and small age groups among those older than 35, Iran had a very young age structure. By 2005, less than 20 years after the initiation of a government-supported family planning program, Iran had shifted to the middle of the range of countries with a youthful age structure.

Iran's family planning efforts have been more successful than the government anticipated. Current national fertility rates are just two children per woman, down from 6.5 children per woman at the time of the revolution. More than half of married women are using a modern method of contraception. Iran's age structure has shifted from being very young in 1980 to approximately halfway through the range of youthful structures in 2005. While there are still large bulges in the age groups between 10 and 24, the age groups of younger children are about one-third smaller.

Iran's demographic changes and comprehensive family planning program have recently been challenged by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a political conservative. In late 2006, he stated that the country's fertility rate should be higher than two children per woman. In announcing a plan to reduce women's working hours as an effort to increase fertility, the president said that the country's population could reach 120 million, an increase of 70 percent from its current level.⁷

Despite its demographic progress, Iran faces a number of other development challenges, primarily political. It remains a lower-middle income country, with an economic growth rate averaging slightly above four percent in recent years. Although oil wealth is a significant contributor to the national economy, inflation and unemployment remain high. Since the revolution, there have been intermittent periods of civil conflict, combined with a disastrous war with Iraq through most of the 1980s. Iran is home to nearly one million refugees from neighboring Afghanistan, where recent politics have been even more tumultuous.

The Iranian government remains an outcast from much of the international community. The country's political establishment, with power centered in Supreme Leader and former president Ayatollah Khameini and other clerics, has resisted recent efforts toward political reform and openness. Since his election in 2005, President Ahmadinejad has raised tensions with the U.S. and other developed nations by refusing to suspend his country's efforts to develop nuclear technology.

Figure 3.6
Iran's Position Along the Demographic Transition

In 1975, Iran had a very young age structure, but in 30 years it has made demonstrable progress along the demographic transition. Even more dramatic changes are predicted for the future. By 2050, more than one-fourth of the country's population is projected to be over age 60.