Chapter Two: Very Young Age Structures

Countries in Profile: Nigeria
Demographic Development: Reversing Course?

With the largest population in Africa, more than 40 percent of the region's GDP, and a government maintaining a delicate hold on democracy, Nigeria&'s political and economic developments reverberate across the continent. Nigeria is the eighth largest oil-exporting country in the world. The petroleum industry is responsible for about two-thirds of national revenue and a great deal of international interest in the country, but it has also been the target of recent political instability. In 2006, militant rebels angry about the distribution of Nigerian oil revenue initiated a series of attacks against the industry, including kidnapping foreign workers, which resulted in the country’s petroleum output dropping by 25 percent.⁴ Fighting has also broken out between Christians and Muslims; the society is extremely heterogeneous, with more than 250 different ethnic groups.

Since its independence from Great Britain in 1960, Nigeria&'s development has been hampered by extended periods of governmental corruption, instability and general mismanagement, all of which have created a weak infrastructure. Despite its vast size and agricultural resources, Nigeria must import food. Environmental challenges include rapid urbanization, pollution from both high population density and the oil industry, and deforestation and loss of arable land.

Nigeria is firmly within the category of a very young age structure, with nearly three-quarters of its population under the age of 30. In fact, its population has actually grown more unbalanced over time. Between 1975 and 2005, the share of young people in the country's population increased while the share of older adults slightly decreased. Thus Nigeria has reversed course along the path of the demographic transition - an anomaly in the process of most countries' development (Figure 2.7)

Nigeria's lack of progress along the demographic transition can be explained by its stagnant death rate and only slightly declining birth rate. Mortality rates have barely changed since 1975, from 20 to 19 annual deaths per 1,000 people. While HIV/AIDS has not reached the scale in Nigeria that it has in southern Africa, four percent of reproductive age adults are infected with the virus. Total life expectancy is around 44 years for men and women, a decline from previous decades. Meanwhile, the total fertility rate dropped from 6.9 to 5.9 children per woman between 1975 and 2005, but remains extremely high. Only eight percent of married women of reproductive age use a modern method of contraception, partially because the ideal number of children is nearly seven. A number of factors may explain this high desired fertility, including poor child survival rates - one-fifth of all children born in Nigeria die before they turn five – and low educational attainment among women, 42 percent of whom have never been to school at all.⁵

Figure 2.6
Nigeria's Age Structures, 1975 and 2005⁶

Nigeria's population age profile has remained virtually unchanged since 1975 in a classic pyramid shape, with bulges in the youngest age groups and steady declines in the proportional size of each successively older age group. This is unusual, compared to most developing countries, which have been experiencing at least gradual declines in fertility and mortality. Nigeria's age structure has not matured since 1975, reflecting the country's reversal in position along the demographic transition.

Following the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria was rated as a partial democracy, an improvement from 15 years spent under an autocratic regime.⁷ Still, corruption extends to the highest reaches of government, with state governors immune from prosecution within the country’s borders and the vice president implicated as accepting bribes from a U.S. Congressman.⁸ Despite President Olusegun Obasanjo's promises of reforms, no high-ranking government official has yet been convicted of corruption during his presidency. In 2006, an unsuccessful attempt, not publicly opposed by Obasanjo, was made to alter the country's constitution to allow him to run for a third term in office. Elections in 2007 should mark the first time that one democratically elected Nigerian president turns over power to another.⁹

Although many previous international development projects had poor results, Nigeria and its donors have taken steps to reduce its debt to foreign creditors. Through currently active projects, the World Bank is funding nearly $2 billion in development assistance to the country. Still, one-third of the population lives in poverty, and Nigeria is among the 20 poorest countries in the world.

In order to project a plausible range of demographic changes for several decades into the future, United Nations demographers generate a series of scenarios including the low-, medium- and high-fertility variants.¹¹ Figure 2.9 shows the range of possibilities for Nigeria's age profile in 2025 based on the low-fertility variant, which assumes a rapid fertility rate decline to 3.1 children per woman, and the high-fertility variant, which projects a fertility rate of 4.1 children per woman. Nigeria’s population more than doubled between 1975 and 2005, and is projected to increase by 40 percent by 2025, according to the UN’s medium fertility scenario. Even if its fertility and mortality rates begin the rapid decline of the low-fertility variant, Nigeria will have a youthful age structure in 2025.

Now that the country has established a democratic government and increased support from international donors, priority must be given to improving its people’s standard of living. Improvements in health and economics would likely lead to a much more stable situation for one of Africa's leading states. Critical areas include maternal and child health, increased use of contraception, and entrenchment against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria and its international partners should also focus on greater access to basic education, especially for girls, and a more equitable distribution of wealth together with other programs to diversify and balance the economy.

Figure 2.7
Nigeria's Position Along the Demographic Transition

The disparities among age groups in Nigeria's population have actually grown more pronounced over the past three decades, as the share of people under 30 has increased and the proportion of older adults has declined. Even if fertility rates drop rapidly, Nigeria will have a youthful age structure in 2025.

Figure 2.8
Current Demographic Statistics for Nigeria¹⁰

Figure 2.9
Nigeria's Potential Age Structures, 2025

Even if birthrates begin to decline rapidly and meet the UN low-fertility variant, they are currently so high that Nigeria will transition just one category and have a youthful age structure in 2025. A more favorable age structure should develop once priority attention is given to both mortality and fertility aspects of health.