Chapter Two: Very Young Age Structures

Countries in Profile: Pakistan
A Youthful Population, Beginning to Mature

With 165 million people, Pakistan is today the sixth most populous country in the world. Its population has historically grown rapidly and, if current projections are on target, growth will continue well into the 21st century. Between 1975 and 2005, the country’s population more than doubled, and the United Nations estimates that another 54 million people will be added in the next 15 years. Around the early 2040s, Pakistan will have surpassed Brazil and Indonesia to become the fourth most populous country in the world, following behind China, India and the United States.¹²

Pakistan is representative of countries that, while still maintaining a young age structure, are beginning to mature. Its demographic trends are particularly noteworthy because of its high strategic interest. Geographically, the country is situated between India - with whom it has maintained a fractious relationship since the two states were partitioned in the mid-twentieth century - and Afghanistan, whose political troubles have crossed Pakistan's border in recent decades. Two other neighbors are Iran, also profiled in this report, and China.

Pakistan's current age structure is similar to those of Cambodia, Nepal and Sudan. Its population profile maintains a classic pyramid shape, but the discrepancy in proportions between the age groups that include children and those comprising adolescents and young adults is less pronounced than in the youngest age structures. This gradual shift to a youthful age structure in Pakistan is due to the declines in birth and death rates that occur at the beginning of the demographic transition.

Figure 2.10
Pakistan's Age Structures, 1975 and 2005

In 1975, due to extremely high fertility rates, Pakistan's age structure was more youthful than it is today. Approximately 30 percent of the population was comprised of children ages nine and younger. Today, Pakistan has a very young age structure that still holds a classic pyramid shape. However, a gradual decline in mortality and fertility rates has decreased the scale of difference between each successively younger age group. Pakistan is on the verge of shifting to a youthful age structure.

Pakistan's government is a parliamentary democracy that has experienced repeated periods of authoritarian and/or military rule in the 60 years since independence. Major civil conflicts in recent decades have included the secession of Bangladesh in 1971 and continuing separatist struggles in other regions. Ongoing hostilities with India, centered over the Kashmir region, have escalated in geopolitical importance since both nations possess nuclear weapons.

Between 1975 and 2000, Pakistan's school-age population doubled.³³ As placement in public schools became increasingly competitive, low-income parents turned to religious schools (in Urdu, madarasas) as the only affordable alternatives for educating their sons. While estimates of the number of madarasas vary, a recent analysis suggests that there may be as many as 45,000 of these schools in Pakistan, with anywhere from ten to several thousand male students in each.¹⁴ The madarasa system is self-perpetuating. Boys and young men who enter madarasas receive no scholastic or technical training. They leave qualified only for Pakistan's already over-staffed religious hierarchy, or to teach in a madarasa or start their own school.

The fundamentalist ideology that took hold in Afghanistan in the form of the Taliban has crossed into some parts of Pakistan as well. Pakistan was one of only three countries to recognize the Taliban-led government, and some of Pakistan's madarasas are believed to have ties with radical religious groups. State security remains threatened by extremists angered by the government's ties to the United States and its anti-terrorism activities in the region. In addition, Pakistan has served as a destination for millions of refugees from Afghanistan over recent decades, which has also affected its age structure. Nearly 60 percent of refugees living in Pakistan in 2003 were under the age of 18.¹⁵

As access to family planning has improved, Pakistan's total fertility rate has declined from 6.6 children per woman in 1975-1980 to 3.7 children per woman in 2005-2010. However, this current fertility rate produces a population growth rate above two percent annually, equating to a population doubling time of less than 40 years. Pakistan still remains in the early stages of the demographic transition and its position along that path has not changed significantly since 1975 (Figure 2.11). In order to make the progress along the demographic transition that the United Nations' medium-fertility variant projects it will, fertility will need to decline by one full child per woman in less than 20 years.

Figure 2.11
Pakistan’s Position Along the Demographic Transition

Pakistan's path along the demographic transition has not changed significantly in the past 30 years. As fertility rates and mortality rates decline, the country's age structure will mature.

Figure 2.12
Current Demographic Statistics for Pakistan¹⁶
Population 1975 68 million
Population 2005 158 million
Population 2025 (medium term projection) 229 million
Population 2050 (medium term projection) 305 million
Median population age 20 years
Population under age 15 38%
Total fertility rate (2005-2010) 3.7
Contraceptive prevalence rate (modern methods, 2001) 20%
Unmet need for family planning 32%
Life expectancy 65 years, male and female
HIV prevalence rate (ages 15-49, 2005) 0.1%
GNI per capita (Atlas method, current US$, 2005) $690
Population living below poverty line 33%
Unemployment rate (2002) 8%
Adult literacy rate (2004) 63% male, 36% women
Arable land (% of total) 24

With a per capita GNI estimated at just under $700 annually, Pakistan is a low-income country, like more than three-quarters of all other countries with very young age structures. Nearly one-third of the population lives below the poverty line. Development prospects remain hampered by poor education - less than two-thirds of adult men are literate and only slightly more than one-third of women are. However, economic growth has improved markedly since 2000. Pakistan receives development assistance from a number of multilateral and bilateral donors, including a new program valued at over $6 billion from the World Bank.

As future population projections reflect, Pakistan has the potential to transition into a more favorable age structure within 15 to 20 years. However, this requires that health care be expanded to a growing population, including the 32 percent of married women with an unmet need for family planning. In order to maintain the current decline in fertility rates to a level that will produce major changes in age structure, Pakistan's government should prioritize universal access to modern methods of family planning and reproductive health care. Education should also be a focus area of development for the country, by strengthening the overall quality of curricula, improving enrollment rates and paying particular attention to the needs of girls and women, whose access to education and achievement are highly inequitable.

Figure 2.13
Pakistan’s Potential Age Structures, 2025

Comparisons of two future population projections from the United Nations show the difference in age structures possible depending on a range of fertility scenarios. If fertility rates decline from today's level of 3.7 to 2.3 children per woman (the UN's low-fertility projection), Pakistan's age structure will mature significantly and all age groups under the age of 35 will have roughly equal proportions. However, if fertility rates only decline to the UN's high projection of 3.3, the age structure will remain similar to today's, with progressively larger population proportions among successively younger age groups.

Summary Point As a group, countries with very young population age structures are extremely vulnerable to political instability. Six of every seven new outbreaks of civil conflict (80 percent) that emerged between 1970 and 1999 occurred where 60 percent or more of the population was under age 30. About one-fourth of all countries that entered any single decade with more than 60 percent of their populations under 30 left that decade having experienced armed civil conflict.

Policy Recommendation Military and intelligence strategists should consider age structure when assessing a country or region's vulnerability to conflict and policymakers should recognize the importance of investing in young people, particularly in education, family planning and sexual and reproductive health. Governments should prioritize cooperation between sectors that are traditionally focused on social welfare, such as health and population ministries, and those focused on political and economic development.

Summary Point Very young countries, with very low national incomes, can experience generally high rates of GDP growth because their economies are small to start with.

Policy Recommendation At this early stage of the demographic transition with accompanying high rates of population growth, increasing numbers of young people will be continually entering the job market. Economic development policies should be targeted at ensuring they have adequate education and training and that industries will be able to provide a sufficient number of jobs.

Summary Point Since 1970, countries with very young age structures have been likely to have undemocratic governments. As the 20th century drew to a close, an average of 13 percent of countries with very young age structures had fully democratic governments. Countries with weak or undemocratic governments and young populations may also face other major political challenges, such as civil unrest or poor economic performance.

Policy Recommendation Activists, policymakers and observers who value the importance of democracy should consider the relevance of population age structure and study the experiences of countries at a similar stage of the demographic transition that have seen regime change. They should also consider how demographic challenges can be alleviated - namely through proven successful policies such as voluntary family planning, sexual and reproductive health programs and girls' education.

Summary Point In addition to high birthrates, countries with a very young age structure tend to face many other serious health challenges, including high infant and maternal mortality rates. The status of women is often also low, leaving them less able to protect the health of themselves and their children.

Policy Recommendation Urgent attention to improving maternal and child health - including improving access to family planning and reproductive health services - is key to a government’s efforts to achieve a more favorable age structure. Governments should prioritize funding for such programs and create a supportive policy environment. In addition, governments should seek donor assistance specifically for these purposes. Efforts must be made to improve the status of women, including increasing access to educational, economic and political opportunities and implementing and enforcing laws against gender-based violence.