Population Action Blog

Population: Off the Radar, Not Off the Map

2009-06-12T18:56:52Z

"The main driving forces of future greenhouse gas trajectories will continue to be demographic change, social and economic development, and the rate and direction of technological change," according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Two of these drivers - development and technology - have been the focus of a great deal of discussion among the international community as they continue to work toward a new international climate change agreement in Bonn this week. The third, demographic change, has been conspicuously absent.

]]> Country delegations and NGOs have put forth numerous proposals to increase living standards in the developing world without following the fossil fuel-intensive example set by the industrialized world. Other proposals outline how transfers of technology and greater support for development activities among vulnerable communities will better enable them to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change.

However, demographic change has not come up in the context of these discussions. This is strange, because demographic change is likely to shape our world in significant ways over the next several decades.

In its latest round of projections, the UN Population Division indicates that the world's population will grow from today's 6.7 billion to somewhere between 8.0 and 10.5 billion by 2050.

During informal conversations with country delegates and colleagues at other civil society organizations, I have found near universal agreement that population growth will affect greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2050. And for those who are thinking critically about how vulnerable communities will adapt to increasing water scarcity or diminishing agricultural production, they know that rapid population growth will further threaten human survival. Researchers at Population Action International have highlighted the importance of population trends for climate change mitigation and adaptation in a new working paper and fact sheet.

The UN presents a wide range for population in 2050 because population growth is sensitive to the conditions of the world around us. For example, more education for girls and economic opportunities for women lead to lower birth rates. Expanding access to reproductive health care and family planning services can have an even more direct and immediate impact.

Currently, more than 200 million women around the world say they would like to avoid a pregnancy, but don't have access to modern contraception--something those of us in the US take for granted. Reversing downward trends in funding for reproductive health and family planning programs could help to remedy that, and would be a good start in shooting for the lower end of the UN's population projections.

The world already agreed on a goal of universal access to these services at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in 1994, where the US and 178 other nations signed onto this consensus. Universal access to reproductive health is also one of the Millennium Development Goals (see Target 5b). This goal from the health sector should be integrated into the world's response to climate change and its human impacts. While talking about reproductive health might be new and a little uncomfortable for climate diplomats, they should get over it - it is a universally accepted goal that has great potential to strengthen climate change solutions.

Powerful Injustice at the Bonn Climate Talks

2009-06-04T21:48:00Z

Published in Grist

It's the fourth day of climate negotiations here in Bonn, and at 4:30 in the afternoon, there is a lull in the action before the start of early evening "contact groups" - official meetings of negotiators that are sometimes open to observers. Looking for a quiet place to sit down with my laptop, I have landed in the main plenary hall, sitting in the seat with a placard that reads "GEF" (Global Environment Facility, the agency charged with managing a portion of funds for international adaptation efforts). Hopefully no one will mind my brief trespass.

]]> To my left sit a man and a woman at the Samoa table - two of the four negotiators from this small island whose very existence is threatened by climate change. Immediately in front of me is a huddle of five people from the World Bank. To my right is a small gathering of a dozen or so from the U.S. team, which is made up of no less than 50 government representatives who have traveled here.

Over the past few days, the issue of inequity has come up in many different contexts. We have heard it in the official proceedings, as developing countries call on industrialized nations to deeply cut their emissions and to provide assistance to enable the poorest, most vulnerable, and least polluting nations adapt to climatic changes. We have heard it in the context of gender, in terms of the differentiated impacts of climate change on women and the need to incorporate women into all aspects of climate change solutions.

Today, I am thinking about the ways that inequity rears its head in more mundane but powerful ways.

During the second day of negotiations, delegates from Cameroon and other Francophone African nations spoke passionately about their limited ability to take part in the negotiations, since the 50-page negotiating text had not yet been translated into French. There are more than 30 francophone countries in Africa. The English version was released over two weeks ago, allowing delegates and civil society groups from Anglophone countries to fully analyze the text, consult stakeholders, and develop thoughtful and strategic comments and revisions. The full suite of translations for the six official languages of the UN was not completed until yesterday - three full days into the 10-day negotiation.

And as my current view of informal groupings in the plenary hall illustrates, there are stark differences in sheer human resources that countries bring to these complex proceedings. According to the printed participant list, no less than 64 countries have only one or two members in their official delegation. One or two! The US has 50, France 36; even Canada has 31.

There are four major tracks taking place simultaneously at this gathering in Bonn: one focused on the Kyoto Protocol, one on a new agreement for long-term cooperative action, one on scientific issues, and a fourth on implementation of the climate convention. Each of these tracks demands input from country delegates on complex and multifaceted issues that affect a country's relationship with its citizens and with other countries. Keeping up with a single issue--say, the debates around Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)--can keep one person working doggedly around the clock, which is why delegations like the US have so many people. How can we expect Mauritius, with one delegate, to meaningfully participate and strategically promote its interests in everything that is happening here? Sure, it can join with the G77 and China block to wield some degree of power in these negotiations, but that, in essence, requires putting one's national autonomy on the shelf.

I'm no expert in the intricacies of international diplomacy, but it seems like this allows for some pretty overt strong-arming from countries with differing interests and greater on-the-ground-in-Bonn staffing.

As I ponder these aspects of inequity, I think about how colleagues in my organization, Population Action International, providecapacity-building and technical and financial support to southern NGOs so they can participate in international forums on reproductive health, AIDS, and other issues. In Bonn, it is obvious that far more resources need to be allotted by the international community to do this in the climate arena. As the climate negotiations march toward a global deal in Copenhagen this December, we need to ensure that those with the most to lose, don't have the least ability to participate.

Climate Change is Sexist

2009-06-02T21:21:41Z

Originally published on Grist

This is the second dispatch by Population Action International from global climate change talks in Bonn, Germany. Read the first.

One of the under-reported issues about climate change is its dramatic affect on women. A side event I attended this afternoon, organized by the Global Gender and Climate Alliance (GGCA), included speakers from all around the world, representing men, women, government agencies, NGOs, North and South. But their messages were unified: women's historic disadvantages--limited access to resources, restricted rights, under-representation in decision making--has made them disproportionately vulnerable to climate change impacts.

]]> Women make up 70 percent of the world's poorest people, pointed out Sirkka Haunia, Finland's chief negotiator. More women die in weather-related natural disasters.

"Seventy percent of subsistence farmers in my country are women," said William Kojo Agyemang-Bonsu, Ghana's chief negotiator. "When climate changes rainfall patterns, they will be the ones who will be most negatively affected."

There is no quick fix to overcoming climate change's sexist tendencies. As several in the meeting pointed out, it is akin to a running a marathon or climbing Mt. Kilimanjaro. "It's a sad state of affairs when only 16 percent of the scientists in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are women," said a female member of the IPCC, the body charged with assessing the state of climate change science for policymakers.

But they are not just victims, the panelists pointed out. "Women everywhere in the world possess unique knowledge and skill, and are active agents of change," said Lorena Aguilar of the World Conservation Union. According to Khamarunga Banda, of ENERGIA in South Africa, "Women make the majority of choices about individual lifestyles and are the ones who change 'business as usual'--so they will need to be central figures in reducing energy use and switching to cleaner sources of fuel." Building on these ideas, the GGCA's strategy is to ensure that gender dimensions of climate challenges and solutions find a place in the text of the next climate agreement.

My organization, Population Action International, embraces the idea of greater gender equity leading to better and more lasting climate change solutions. By meeting women's needs--including needs for adequate reproductive-health and family-planning services--we can improve the health and well-being of women and families, increasing resilience in the face of climate change and putting the breaks on population growth that is associated with rising greenhouse-gas emissions.

Kathleen Mogelgaard is Senior Program Manager of the Population and Climate Change Program at Population Action International.

First impressions from Bonn: climate change hurts the poor

2009-06-02T21:14:07Z

Originally published on Grist

Kathleen Mogelgaard is Senior Program Manager of the Population and Climate Change Program at Population Action International.

At the opening of the international climate change talks in Bonn, Germany, today, representatives from governments around the world shared their opinions on a newly released draft of a global climate treaty that will be debated and (perhaps) finalized when they meet again in Copenhagen in December.
]]> While representatives of the industrialized world somewhat sheepishly offered up their countries' meager progress in slowing the pace of their rampant growth in emissions, representatives from the developing world did their best to sound the alarm.

"We need to act urgently, as the most vulnerable among us are suffering daily," said the representative of the G77 and China. "Climate change is the defining challenge of our times."

"Climate change is one of humanity's greatest injustices; addressing it aggressively will determine our survival," said the representative from the Alliance of Small Island States. "We are concerned about efforts to downplay the science for political expediency."

"We should not forget that we are all in this together," said the representative of Togo, "and a sinking boat is a catastrophe for all of us."

Over the next two weeks, these delegates, who make up the climate convention's "Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action," will debate, expand, and refine the draft text of an agreement. They will endeavor to agree on who must cut emissions, by how much, and on what timescale. And they will discuss how the industrialized countries will help the developing world adapt to the climatic changes that are already here and are destined to get much worse before they get better.

While the official country delegations hammer out these details, those of us with NGO observer status sit in the back of the room listening to simultaneous translation through headsets, furiously typing notes, and exchanging knowing glances when Australia says something disastrous but predictable.

Throughout these two weeks, we will come together in various strategic working groups and alliances, determining strategies for injecting, protecting, or jettisoning specific language in the text that relates to our various missions and goals. The hallways outside meeting rooms resonate with animated conversations. Reports and fact sheets fly off tables in the exhibit area. A full schedule of fascinating side events clamors for our attention.

And we'll use the opportunity of this gathering to network and communicate new or under-reported issues. My organization, Population Action International, is here because we believe population issues are critical in the climate change equation. And we believe that there are some great population-related policies--like expanding access to reproductive health and family-planning programs to the millions of women around the world who want it but don't have it--that can and should be part of a comprehensive solution to climate change. Not many people are talking about this. We're working to change that--in Bonn, Copenhagen, and beyond.

As Canada Retreats from Africa, Will the U.S. Step Up?

2009-05-20T16:28:11Z

First published on RH Reality Check

"Canada has pulled away from Africa," remarked Canadian MP Dr. Keith Martin during the House of Parliament screening of The Silent Partner: HIV in Marriage in Ottawa, "and it is appalling." Though it was buried beneath Canadian coverage of H1N1, the Conservative Canadian government quietly announced that it would slash funding for Canadian International Development Agency (also known as CIDA) programs "that don't align with government priorities."

]]> The implications of this decision made by the highest levels of Canadian government emerged front and center through Population Action International and Action Canada for Population and Development's film screening of Silent Partner through Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. The Silent Partner: HIV in Marriage examines the risk of HIV within marriage and the particular challenges facing married women, including harmful gender and societal norms that put women and couples at risk for HIV. Over this past decade, CIDA had promoted integrated programming around issues such as the role of gender and HIV/AIDS prevention. One of the recipients of their support was Men for Gender Equity Now (MEGEN), which works in Kenya to sensitize men on gender equality, gender-based violence and the prevention of HIV/AIDS.

"For many years in the prevention of HIV/AIDS, our efforts at addressing the role of men in HIV/AIDS prevention have been similar to the Kenyan children's story of the mice who meet to solve the problem of their fellow brethren being killed off by the cat," remarked Kennedy Odhiambo Otina, coordinator for MEGEN. "All the mice agreed that a bell needed to be tied around the cat's neck to prevent more of them from being killed - however the question remained - who would volunteer to tie the cat?"

Kennedy credits CIDA's innovative role in resource mobilization for the success of MEGEN, as their resources allowed his organization to perform outreach and raise culturally-sensitive awareness around issues of gender equity, violence against women, and the need for men to prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS. Over the years, Kennedy's coordinating of FEMNET's Men-2-Men programme "has shown that men who are convinced that women are equal partners can be key allies in deconstructing negative attitudes and practices that promote gender-based violence and the spread of HIV and AIDS."

MEGEN hopes to expand its outreach program to six other countries, including Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi and Uganda. However, the news that the Conservative government of Canada will no longer be funding projects that sensitize men on equality issues in countries such as South Africa and Kenya, strikes a body blow to holistic governmental approaches to development and HIV/AIDS prevention. When other governments, including the U.S., failed to utilize cross-cutting, integrated approaches to HIV/AIDS prevention, projects like MEGEN were the norm for CIDA's approach to foreign assistance in Africa. With Canada's abrupt exit from cross-cutting approaches to foreign assistance across Africa, the United States' President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) faces an increased emphasis to more fully integrate its HIV/AIDS prevention programs with the realities on the ground.

While groups like Kennedy's MEGEN continue to provide inspiring, cross-cutting work engaging men on gender equality and prevention of HIV/AIDS, sufficient resource mobilization from foreign governments will continue to be critical in the scale-up and expansion of their successful interactions. However with Canada turning away from Africa, I'm left to ponder and internalize the question from Kennedy's children's tale: will the U.S. now step forward left to tie the cat?

Pakistan's Daunting--and Deteriorating--Demographic Challenge

2009-04-30T17:54:50Z

First published in The New Security Beat

Every day it seems the headlines bring new worries about the future of Pakistan. But among the many challenges confronting the nation--including a growing Taliban insurgency--one significant problem remains largely undiscussed: its rapidly expanding population.

]]> Consider this: Pakistan's population nearly quadrupled from 50 million in 1960 to 180 million today. It's expected to add another 66 million people--nearly the entire population of Iran--in the next 15 years. UN projections predict that by the late 2030s, Pakistan will become the fourth most populous country in the world, behind India, China, and the United States.

And believe it or not, the demographic outlook for Pakistan got bleaker in recent weeks. The new medium-range UN projections for Pakistan's total population have been raised to 335 million for 2050--45 million higher than the UN projection just two years ago. Why the change? Because birth rates aren't falling as had been predicted--women in Pakistan have an average of four children--and unmet need for family planning remains high.

The case of education provides a snapshot of how these demographics affect Pakistan, from basic quality-of-life issues to the country's overall stability. Even though the official literacy rate in Pakistan has increased from about 18 percent to 50 percent since 1970, the number of illiterate people has simultaneously jumped from 28 million to 48 million. The literacy rate for women stands at a shockingly low 35 percent.

As public schools have become increasingly overcrowded, more parents have turned to madrasas in an attempt to educate their children--or at least their sons. It's no secret that some of Pakistan's madrasas have ties to radical religious and terrorist-affiliated organizations.

So what does this portend for the future?

Even assuming large infusions of assistance from the United States, Pakistan's public school system will become even more overwhelmed in the years ahead. Building enough schools and hiring enough teachers would be daunting in any country, let alone one facing as many challenges as Pakistan. It seems likely that enrollments in madrasas will swell, and more children will face a future with no schooling whatsoever. Clearly, this is not a recipe for a more stable and peaceful Pakistan.

Pakistan's rapid population growth is not inevitable, however. A key driver is lack of access to family planning, which is symptomatic of the overall poor status of women and girls. More than 25 percent of Pakistani women have an unmet need for family planning--meaning the demand is clearly there--and nothing in the Koran prohibits its usage. In other majority-Muslim nations, such as Algeria, Bangladesh, and Iran, family planning has been prioritized and is widely used.

Unfortunately, family planning programs in Pakistan and many developing countries have suffered from both inattention and funding cuts in recent years. Traditionally, the United States has been a major source of funding and technical assistance, but since 1995, U.S. international family planning assistance has fallen 35 percent (adjusted for inflation), even as demand has increased.

Today, more than 200 million women--many of them in the most impoverished parts of the world--have an unmet need for family planning. In countries like Pakistan, the resulting rapid population growth makes it increasingly difficult to provide sufficient education, health care, housing, and employment--and depletes land, water, fisheries, and other vital natural resources.

The Obama administration recently proposed a new U.S. assistance strategy for Pakistan--and a key component is a significant increase in development and economic assistance. Let's hope it will include an increase for family planning. It would be a wise investment in a brighter, more stable future--for Pakistan and for the world.

Tod Preston is vice president for U.S. government relations at Population Action International.

Is Africa Underpopulated? Population, the Environment and Climate Change in Ethiopia

2009-04-29T16:43:35Z

"Africa is under populated." Those were the shocking words of Dr. Strike Mkandla, the head of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in a provocative response to a presentation I gave on the links between population and climate change at Ethiopia's first celebration of Earth Day on April 22. Dr. Mkandla continued that Africa has lots of land that can contain many more people. I discussed the benefits of slower population growth for adaptation in African countries that will be the hardest hit by the impacts of climate change. The audience was surprised that the head of a United Nations agency would make such a statement, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, including from the UNEP itself and sister UN agencies. Dr. Mkandla left before I could respond or the audience could ask questions.

]]> The Earth Day celebration took place in the main hall of the East and Central Africa UN complex. Ethiopia's president, the Honorable Girma W/Giorgis, who is a strong advocate for environmental issues, opened the forum. Dr. Mkandla started with a presentation on the effects of climate change in Africa and my presentation on population and climate change followed, along with an excellent presentation on gender and climate, by Dr. Puskur Ranjitha.

This Earth Day celebration was taking place in a country in which the population of around 80 million is on track to double in less than 30 years, according to the UN Population Division. Ethiopia faces chronic food insecurity that is getting worse according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, a sister UN organization to UNEP. Over six million people in the country are estimated to face chronic or transitory food insecurity, which is exacerbated by changes in climate and more frequent droughts. Another sister UN organization, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has been working in Ethiopia for over 30 years to expand access to family planning and reproductive health services and to support use of demographic data for policymaking.

Ethiopia's president also raised the question during another Earth Day event later in the week, saying that he did not understand the connection between population and the environment. Ethiopia's president has a laudable goal to reforest Ethiopia, which may have been more than half forest in the early 20th century, including savannah woodland. In 1950, when Ethiopia had closer to 20 million people, forest cover was an estimated 16% of the land area. Today, the ever expanding population that is now four times larger, is encroaching on marginal land, including in the remaining approximately 4% of forest area, to eke out an increasingly marginal existence.This will make the president's reforestation goal, which would be beneficial as a carbon sink, difficult to achieve.

In 1950, when the UN Population Division first starting tracking population trends, population density in Ethiopia was 19 persons per sq/kilometer. In 2010 a projected 80 people will be living per sq/kilometer and by 2050 it will be more than 150 people, on average, living in that same space. The 85% of Ethiopians who live in rural areas depend in large part on subsistence agriculture for their survival. Rural families have, on average, 6 children, who they are finding harder to feed and educate, particularly under conditions of declining soil fertility and shifting rainfall patterns. These leaders would do well to heed the words of Jothan Musinguzi, director of the population secretariat in Uganda's Ministry of Finance, in the Guardian in August 2006. "What's happening [in Africa] is alarming and depressing," he said, pointing out the clear correlation between high fertility levels and poverty. "Are we really going to be able to give these extra people jobs, homes, healthcare and education?"

As usual, young people are among the first to absorb this new information. During my trip, I had the opportunity to visit a project of the Guraghe People's Self Help Development Organization (GPSDO), supported by the Packard Foundation. Located in the northern part of the South Nations, Nationalities, and the Peoples Regional State (SNNPRS), the project works in an area that is over 90% rural and is facing severe land degradation.

After training, provided by Ethiopia's Consortium for Integrated Population, Health and Environment, on population, health and environment programs and with support from the Packard Foundation, GPSDO jumped at the chance to transform a youth reproductive health project into a youth-focused population, health and environment (PHE) project - to meet the felt needs of the community to focus on health, livelihoods and the land degradation they are facing. In just eight months the project has grown considerably and young people have organized themselves into a PHE club working on agricultural practices, environmental conservation and family planning. These young people recognize, along with the community, that large family sizes are unsustainable where they live. During our visit, I asked the young people in the PHE club how many children they wanted. Hands shot up, mostly saying two, with a few saying four or giving other numbers.

I wish these young people could show their president and the head of UNEP where they live, the challenges they face, and the steps they are taking in their own lives to forge a future for themselves, their families and their country.

Want to Fight Hunger? Empower Women and Prioritize Family Planning

2009-04-27T15:41:14Z

Originally published in The Huffington Post

Have you seen the ads? They seem to be everywhere -- from the Washington Metro system's billboards, to the New Yorker and Roll Call.

"9 billion people to feed. A changing climate. NOW WHAT?"

While focused on biotechnology, the ad (sponsored by Monsanto) does point to a key challenge in the years ahead: namely, the need to double agricultural output by 2050 to feed a rapidly growing world.

]]> One billion people -- the equivalent of three times the population of the United States -- already are chronically hungry in the world today. And despite all the pledged commitments and efforts to eradicate hunger, that number is 100 million people higher than in the early 1990s.

Unfortunately, the problem of hunger is likely to get worse in the years ahead as global demand for food skyrockets. Meeting that demand will be daunting enough, but add in the shifts in weather patterns that are beginning to occur because of climate change -- on top of already decreasing cropland and freshwater -- and there's reason to be very concerned.

In recognition of the need for bold action, President Obama recently announced his intent to double U.S. funding for agricultural development. It's a long overdue commitment to investing U.S. resources to combat chronic hunger in a more comprehensive and effective way. By most accounts, the primary hunger assistance the U.S. has provided over the last several decades -- emergency food aid -- has done little to fundamentally address the problem.

But there's another, seemingly unrelated type of assistance that can play a major role in the fight to eradicate hunger: family planning programs and other initiatives that empower women.

A major driver of the need to double food production in the next forty years is population growth: we're currently increasing by 80 million people per year. And one of the primary causes of this growth is high unintended pregnancy rates resulting from lack of access and low usage of family planning in many poor countries.

Just look at Ethiopia. Of the country's current 80 million people, an estimated 35 million Ethiopians are undernourished. More than half of children under age five are stunted. A third of the population lives on less than $1 a day. Ethiopian women, on average, give birth to five or six children -- more than many of them desire, because 35 percent of women have an "unmet need" for family planning.

Ethiopia's population of 80 million people -- double what it was at the time of the horrendous famine in the mid-1980's -- is projected to increase to 120 million in just the next 15 years. And that's the "optimistic" scenario. According to new data from the U.N., if birth rates remain at their current high levels -- if access to family planning does not improve -- the population will jump to 132 million by 2025.

No realistic amount of food aid or agricultural development assistance will truly combat hunger in Ethiopia unless the underlying demographic realities -- and the very interrelated poor status of women -- are also addressed. Ethiopia received $700 million in emergency food aid from the U.S. just between 2003 and 2007; last year, the Bush Administration requested a mere $15 million for family planning there.

The situation in Ethiopia is far from unique. Nearly 60 percent of Haiti grapples with hunger every day and almost a quarter of children under age five are stunted in growth. Haiti's population of nearly 10 million is projected to jump to 15 million by 2030 if birth rates stay where they are today. With little access to contraceptives, Haitian women give birth to an average of four children. 40% of married women have an unmet need for family planning.

In the past, policymakers have generally turned a blind eye to the demographic part of the hunger problem -- much the same way they largely turn a blind eye to the more than 500,000 mothers in poor nations who die every year during pregnancy and childbirth from easily preventable causes. For example, since 1995, U.S. international family planning assistance has declined by 35%, even as demand has increased.

Perhaps it's not a coincidence that one thing both these issues have in common is the shockingly poor and unjust status of women in many of the world's poorest areas: lack of access to family planning, little (if any) education, few legal rights, and limited economic empowerment. (I've visited Ethiopia twice and have seen first-hand how women are treated.) But we all know where these issues rank on most politicians' agendas.

I think it comes down to this: ironically, family planning isn't seen as a sexy issue. It's not an issue that many policymakers -- here in the U.S. and in the affected countries themselves -- feel merits much attention. It's not covered much by the media. And it wrongly gets mired in debates around abortion -- even though family planning reduces abortions.

So back to that Monsanto ad: "9 billion people to feed. A changing climate. NOW WHAT?"

I say -- and hopefully the Obama Administration will say -- family planning and empowering women, that's what!

Tod Preston is Vice President for U.S. Government Relations at Population Action International (PAI). Preston leads PAI's advocacy and outreach activities to U.S. policymakers and opinion-leaders, including Members of Congress and officials in the Executive branch.

Going Green

2009-04-21T21:13:59Z

Amber Kirtley is a graduate of Furman University. She is serving as Communications Intern at Population Action International for the Spring 2009 semester.

Somewhere along the way "go green" stopped just being a phrase I would snap at my mother when she took too long to enter an intersection after a light or the adamant suggestion my sorority would chant to rush hopefuls during Greek recruitment. Now, "go green", to me, refers to the persistent voice chirping in all of our ears, encouraging us to alter our lifestyles and do our part to save the world.

]]> This tree hugging, vegetarian, hybrid driving voice makes me feel guilty every time I leave my canvas bag at home when I go to the grocery store. Instead of tossing my Diet Coke into the trash can, that voice urges me to walk it to the blue recycling bin. I blame the voice for the sense of unease I feel when I leave the house thinking I left a light on, a feeling that is only calmed when I walk a block back to check. To avoid his pestering I now scoff at the idea of driving to anywhere that is within three miles of my house, because as I am reminded by every bus ad that goes by: that's what walking is for.

Where did this green little monster come from? I wish I could say I can trace his origins back to some environmental epiphany I had at one of the many earth day celebrations I have been exposed to over the years, or that he sprang from my natural tendency to be a good person and sacrifice for the greater good, but I can't. No, this little guy came from a much darker place, which consequently makes me question if he isn't somehow related to that jealous tramp, the green eyed monster. Rather than being the voice of my conscience, it is the voice of peer pressure.

I now do my part to reduce my carbon footprint, conserve energy, and know enough about global warming to realize it doesn't mean that in 2030 I will be able to wear shorts all year 'round because... going green is cool.

Everywhere I look celebrities are giving money or becoming a spokesperson for a new environmental cause. Organic cotton outfits are now all the rage and I covet all the stylish totes made from recycled materials I see on the streets of DC and in People magazine. It's a social faux pas to not recycle and if you walk to Eastern Market and ask for a plastic bag with your purchases you can feel the disapproving stare of other patrons and vendors burning holes in your back.

So, that is my confession. I do my part to save the world because it's cool. I let that annoying green guy in my head dictate my actions because I want to be part of the newest trend that seems to be here to stay. But, as I dedicate myself more and more to "going green," I realize how much of an impact our collective dedication to the planet (whether altruistic or based on peer pressure) actually has. Like so many others out there celebrating Earth Day in 2009, it's important to me to be a part of something bigger than myself, to feel as if little things I do make a difference.

Having lived through the 90s and new millennium and thus being a participant in the various trends of pogs, milky pen eyeliner, and obsession with reality television I can confidently say that joining the "go green" trend is one of my better life choices to make myself cool. And you know when it is all said and done, I have another confession to make. I kind of like my new green friend. I like making the world a better place.

Happy Earth Day.

If I Knew Then What I Know Now

2009-04-14T20:09:30Z

Jasmine Wilkins is a graduate of the College of William and Mary . She is serving as New Project Development Intern at Population Action International for the Spring 2009 semester.

As a Peace Corps Volunteer you're assigned to work with a particular sector, be it community health, small business development, food security, etc. You receive countless hours of sector-specific training - culture, language and technical - and inevitably bond with other volunteers in the same sector. After all, for the first three months in country they're usually the only Americans (besides select Peace Corps staff) with whom you have contact. ]]>

Consequently, each sector takes on a personality of its own, along with a cutsie nickname like "aggie" or "TEFLer." You become so immersed in your sector that you begin to adopt singular characteristics and behaviors. An anthropologist would have a field day with the study of adaptation patterns among PCVs. Within a short three-month period you essentially evolve into a member of a tribe, and you ascribe - heart, body and soul - to the language, culture and customs, of that tribe.

In my case I was assigned the role of TEFL (Teaching English as a foreign language) Teacher Trainer for the pilot TEFL program in Nicaragua, the first of its kind in the Inter-America and Pacific Region. This meant that I worked in and around Nicaraguan public schools and their students. And while the assignment brought with it a unique set of challenges and frustrations (i.e. classroom management for 75 mixed-sex adolescents on a 98-degree day during the height of the rainy season with open windows), I rarely strayed from the duties and responsibilities I solemnly swore to take on. For better or worse, the local public school became my home away from home.

As the Spring 2009 New Project Development Intern with PAI, I was assigned to work with the Population and Climate Change Initiative as well as the Emerging Donors Project. From Day one I researched international development issues like foreign aid, health, governance, education, agriculture, environment and gender. And yes, I shamefully admit that I hadn't the faintest idea what the UNFCCC or MDGs were before the fact. But that's beside the point. The research I did led me to reflect carefully on my experience in Nicaragua. I now realize that while in Nicaragua I saw for myself the real impact of climate change in a tropical developing country, and failed to capitalize on the invaluable opportunity to educate and inform the community at large. I was so focused on sector-specific projects that I lost sight of the bigger picture. That is to say, I lost sight of the interconnectedness of the world around both me and my students.

The majority of my students were the children and grandchildren of agricultores (farmers) and - for all their academic shortcomings - they themselves were expert tillers of the land. These same students understood the seasons and crop cycles better than any technical expert sent by a development aid organization to save the proverbial day. They also understood that the earth upon which they depended was changing before their very eyes. I often heard students, parents and - in particular - grandparents, talk about how they used to be able to count the days until the seasons changed or the land yielded crops. They also commented on the water quality and quantity they used to receive during the rainy season. Those are heavy-hitting used tos for a small agriculture-based pueblo.

The climate change impacts on agriculture directly affected all aspects of life in the pueblo. It became more and more difficult to feed traditional large families. Inevitably less money was available to pay for healthcare and medication. Therefore family members would unnecessarily endure illness and injury. The illness or injury they endured often turned into a more serious health complication. Consequently family members would be forced to miss work and school. In doing so they often risked unemployment or poor grades. From there it is easy to imagine how one becomes trapped in a vicious cycle of chronic poverty.

Over the course of a few generations the familiar seasonal pattern that sustained the livelihood of the pueblo had all but disappeared. I like to believe that if I knew then what I know now I would have worked with town hall or local cooperatives to educate and inform the community about the impacts of climate change in order to brainstorm ideas and forge alliances to tackle the issue. For all my hopes the past is past. I now look forward to future opportunities to discuss and make connections between population, environment and climate change, in order empower people and their communities.

US Government Renews Commitment to Cairo; Increases Funding for ICPD

2009-04-08T17:00:48Z

by Suzanna Dennis & Susan Anderson

Writing from the United Nations

"I am honored to be here today to express the renewed and deep commitment of the United States Government to the goals and aspirations of the ICPD Program of Action." With these words, Margaret Pollack, head of the US Delegation to the United Nations Commission on Population and Development (CPD) ushered in a new era of US engagement on reproductive rights at the UN. The US CPD statement is another signal of the new course the Obama Administration is steering America's policy on reproductive health. Finally we are heading in the right direction again.

]]> For many advocates of sexual and reproductive rights, this is the first time they have attended the CPD with a "friendly" US Delegation. And the US Delegation to the CPD has been friendly, and carried on President Barack Obama's spirit of transparency and engagement. For example, on the second day of the CPD, the US Delegation held an unprecedented briefing with nongovernmental organizations from around the world to discuss the US position going into the negotiations.

In addition to political will, the US Government--the largest bilateral donor for family planning in terms of absolute dollars--has also signaled financial support for the ICPD agenda. In mid-March, President Obama signed the fiscal year 2009 omnibus spending bill which allocates $545 million in funding for family planning and reproductive health in 2009, almost a 20 percent increase over the previous year. President Obama also re-funded the United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) with a $50 million contribution. And the administration is making international family planning and reproductive health a priority, despite funding challenges. As Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton explained in a speech accepting Planned Parenthood's Margaret Sanger Award, "I and the Administration are not wavering in our commitments to development assistance even in these tough economic times."

There are other signs of support for women's rights and multilateral engagement on behalf of the US. In the NGO briefing at CPD Pollack indicated that the US will work to ratify the Convention to End All Forms of Discrimination Against Women. The US is the only industrialized country that has failed to do so. In a presentation at the CPD, Scott Radloff, Director of the US Agency for International Development's Office of Population and Reproductive Health said that the US is likely to endorse the Millennium Development Goals in the weeks ahead.

These and other actions--especially at the CPD--show that change and a new direction have come to the US, which will once again support the empowerment and autonomy of women to make decisions about their reproductive health.

Smaller Population Size in the New UN Population Projection Depends on Expanded Access to Family Planning

2009-03-16T16:41:24Z

The Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released the 21st round of its official global population projection, the 2008 Revision, on March 11, 2009. The 2008 Revision suggests that under a medium variant assumption, in which the total fertility rate (TFR) will decline from 2.56 children per women in 2005-2010 to 2.02 in 2045-2050, the world population will likely increase from 6.83 billion in 2009 to 9.15 billion in 2050. If TFR were 0.5 higher than in the medium variant - as in a high variant assumption - world population would reach 10.5 billion. If TFR were 0.5 lower than in the medium variant - as in a low variant assumption - world population would still increase to 8 billion. Therefore, global population growth seems inevitable even if fertility decline accelerates. The trend that all additional global population growth will occur exclusively in the developing world has not changed.

]]> However, compared with the projection results in the 2006 Revision, the medium variant global population size in 2050 is 40 million lower in the 2008 Revision . To a certain extent this result might be a surprise to those who have been tracking the UN population projection records during the past six decades. Since the end of the last century, the UN Population Division's population projections had continuously adjusted the global population size in 2050 upward from 8.91 billion in the 1998 Revision to 9.19 billion in the 2006 Revision.

In fact, there are a number of factors in the new projection that should contribute to a larger rather than smaller population size. Global TFR in the baseline period (2005-2010) increases from 2.55 in the 2006 Revision to 2.56 in the 2008 Revision. The TFRs are then assumed to decline to the same level (2.02) in 2045-2050 in both of the revisions. Moreover, the assumptions of life expectancy at birth have also been adjusted upward from 67 years to 68 years for the baseline, and from 75 years to 76 years for 2045-2050. The success of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment has reduced the number of countries considered to be highly affected by the disease from 62 countries in the 2006 Revision to 58 in the 2008 Revision. The assumed continuous effort of HIV prevention and treatment will lead to an estimated 30 million fewer deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2005-2020 in the 2008 Revision than were projected in the 2006 Revision. Based on these facts, one would expect that the newly revised projection should result in a larger population size than the previous Revision.

What causes the smaller population size by year 2050 in the new projection? Analysis of variations in regional fertility levels tells us that the projected 40 million decline in population in the 2008 Revision is almost completely due to an assumption of significantly declining fertility rates in the 49 least developed countries.

For the baseline of 2005-2010, the estimated fertility rate for developed countries increases from 1.60 in the 2006 Revision to 1.64 in the 2008 Revision. This increase might be based on the recently observed growth in fertility levels in Western Europe. The estimated baseline fertility level for the developing world, excluding the 49 least developed countries, increases from 2.45 in the 2006 Revision to 2.46 in the 2008 Revision. Moreover, the assumptions on TFRs for the middle of the century in the 2008 Revision also increase from 1.79 to 1.80 and from 1.91 to 1.93 for developed countries and developing countries (excluding the least developed countries), respectively. These changes cause a slightly higher global fertility rate in both the baseline and future years in the new Revision.

However, TFR from the least developed countries is assumed to be significantly lower in the 2008 Revision than in the previous Revision: decreasing from 4.63 to 4.39 in the baseline year, and from 2.50 to 2.41 in 2045-2050. This is the key factor contributing to the 40 million reduction in global total population by year 2050. Another cause of the lower population projection could be the higher estimated net migration flow from high fertility areas in developing nations to low fertility regions in the developed world - the annual average net migrants increases from 2.3 million in the 2006 Revision to 2.4 million in the 2008 Revision.

The changes in the assumptions of TFR in various world regions reflects the fact that UN population projections, like most other population forecasts, maintain a strong faith in the theory of demographic transition and assumes that the world will soon converge demographically. In the 2008 Revision, the assumption of demographic convergence becomes even stronger - the TFRs of different world regions are expected to converge to replacement level (around 2.05 children per woman) more quickly than in the previous Revisions. However, this projected demographic trend is contingent upon and sensitive to the speed of fertility declines in the least developed nations. The 2008 Revision report indicates that "if fertility were to remain constant at the levels estimated for 2005-2010 ... the world population could increase by nearly twice as much as currently expected"; and "to achieve such (TFR) reductions, it is essential that access to family planning expands, particularly in the least developed countries."

More Than a Conference: Liberation, Leadership, and Liberia

2009-03-13T20:46:53Z

Crossposted from the Huffington Post

Monrovia, Liberia, March 7, 2009. The "International Colloquium on Women's Empowerment, Leadership Development, International Peace and Security 2009" is about to get started. Presidents Johnson-Sirleaf (Liberia) - The first woman president in Africa! - and Tarja Halonen (Finland) are hosting us. It's International Women's day tomorrow. This is a good place to spend it. Even sitting in my warm clothes from cold USA weather (luggage still in transit) and a bit sticky in this tropical weather, I'm nonetheless excited, expectant and hopeful for the two days ahead. About 500 of us are sitting in the middle of the sunny football field. There is no convention hall in Monrovia - this stadium works well, has nice rooms for breakout sessions and safety barriers to protect the four Heads of State here. We don't notice the distant empty stadium seats surrounding us. We're enjoying the shade created by the attractive thatched roof of palm leaves with bamboo poles - creating an "open air tent," the plastic chairs are comfortable, the music is fun. We're waiting for the Heads of State to arrive. One organizer tells us that there were no tents big enough in Liberia for this event - it was a woman's ingenuity that came up with our protective and sweet smelling roof of palm leaves. By the end of this colloquium, I realize not much stops Liberian woman and the good men that work by their side.

]]> The four themes of the colloquium are; UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (which addresses the disproportionate impact of armed conflict on women and recognized women's unique role in conflict resolution and peacemaking), Women's Leadership, Economic Empowerment, Climate Change, Migration and Millennium Development Goal 3 (Promoting gender equality and empowering women).

Liberia is a very, very poor country that has been through awful conflict until 2005 when President Johnson-Sirleaf was elected. Women here played a key role in bringing about that peace. Many women were also a part of the conflict. They became soldiers; often after being abducted and raped, they took up weapons to protect themselves and being a soldier was safer than being a victim. Rape was a huge weapon in this conflict - the stories are horrid.

But this conference is about the future. It is about moving on - being part of the world. The slogans and the songs were about LIBERIAN WOMAN BEING STRONG, LIBERIA BEING STRONG AND BECOMING AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE WORLD. It is about Liberians bringing their country to health and prosperity. President Johnson-Sirleaf asked us all there to find ways to work together for the exchange of knowledge and understanding. She said, "We believe that working to establish and maintain universal peace and providing to women the means to participate fully in the development and upkeep of viable structures for the benefit of all are long overdue. ...We want to hear your stories, we want to exchange ideas with you and we want to tell you our stories".

I was reminded of the 1995 women's conference in Beijing. It was much larger and hotter and there was more chaos - but it too moved agendas, hearts, minds and it ushered in new change for women and their families. One of the first International Women's Day celebrations in 1911 took the form of a series of marches and strikes that spread across Europe like wildfire working for women's rights. Too many people shake off "conferences" as just a lot of talk. But the right ones are about creating change in the world. I close with a quote from Juanita Brown in "The World Café":...there's a wisdom that emerges as we get more and more connected with each other... separate ideas ... become connected to each other, life surprises us... the sudden appearance of new capacity and intelligence .. emerges." It happened in Liberia.

I'll write more about this provocative gathering in the weeks ahead and what I think it accomplished and will accomplish.

Future Prospects for the Youth in Uganda

2009-03-11T19:56:25Z

I have just concluded a nine day visit to Uganda to research the connections between population dynamics and development. This connection has been made by PAI and others on the global level but we have yet to discern how this plays out in individual countries. Uganda has one of the fastest growing populations in the world and 50 percent of its population is younger than 15 years old. How do you educate all these children? On paper, the intentions are very good. The government has supported free primary school for quite some time already and more than two-thirds of the population is literate. Recently, a bill that will allow free secondary education was passed by the Ugandan parliament.

]]> Despite these great strides, in reality, there is another story to be told. The ever increasing number of children of school age puts a tremendous pressure on the existing infrastructure and there is a pressing need for new schools. The teacher to student ratio can be as high as 1/100, while the initial goal was 1/40. Parents are asked to contribute not only for books and school uniforms, but also for the new schools' construction materials. These increasing demands on household income, which averages US$340 annually, cause many drop-outs. According to Catharine Watson from Uganda's Straight Talk Foundation, only a few students are actually able to complete their education. A 14 year old boy at the Straight Talk Foundation was telling Ms. Watson about his anxiety about how long he will be able to stay in school and the fear of what comes next. "I am afraid I will become a thief," he told Ms. Watson.

Very youthful age structures are certainly challenging for a country because of the steady demands they make for adapting capacities to the needs of a fast growing population. Depending on the job situation in the country, a young age structure is either an opportunity or a risk for development (see "The Shape of Things to Come," available on PAI's website). University studies are still very prestigious, but they just don't match the demand of the labor market. This mismatch between the demand for and offer of work and the lack of vocational training translate into record breaking unemployment figures among youth ages 15 to 24 (the share of unemployed youth among the total unemployed is 83 percent in Uganda, the highest in the world according to the new Africa Development Indicators launched by The World Bank in 2008).

A few days ago, a university graduation took place in the gardens of the Sheraton Hotel in Kampala. The ceremony was filled with smiling faces, but the future of these young graduates does not look bright. According to the German Foundation for World Population (DSW), only one-third of university graduates are able to find a job in the formal sector. What options remain for the less lucky ones? What are the alternatives for youth in the informal economy? It is difficult to tell with certainty but any onlooker in the capital can be sure of one thing. The streets of Kampala are filled with a swarm of young guys waiting patiently on their sparkling motorbikes for potential clients in need of a ride. However, earnings in the informal economy rarely allow for making future plans.

Where can this combination of under-utilized youth potential and poor economic prospects lead the country? Different paths of development are possible. While sustained economic growth could expand the labor market to offer new opportunities, disillusions and poverty might as well inspire Ugandan youth to follow the example of their Kenyan brothers and make the streets of Kampala as dangerous as those of Nairobi. Could disputed elections be the tipping point leading to an outbreak of violence as they did in Kenya? The course of political events is always difficult to predict. Sometimes it just takes a sudden increase in the price of staple foods to cause hunger riots like those we saw in Haiti last spring. Desperation and the legitimate desire for a decent living may lead youth to turn to violence to get the solutions they do not get from elsewhere. At the same time, youth are often creative in the face of problems, and the potential instilled in them should not be underestimated. Slowing population growth is a beneficial byproduct of sensible, rights-based provision of family planning services. The youth of Uganda deserve nothing less.

Reflections on International Women's Days Past

2009-03-08T14:43:11Z

Jennifer Johnson is Writer/Editor at Population Action International.

"One seething trembling sea of women." These were the words Russian revolutionary and feminist Aleksandra Kollontai used to describe the one of the first International Women's Day celebrations in 1911. The first events were organized by German socialist Klara Zetkin to call attention to the plight of the female worker. As the year wore on, a whole series of marches and strikes were organized as news of these demonstrations spread across Europe like wildfire.

]]> As the years went on, the annual event developed, taking on the cause of peace, as well as women's rights. In 1915, a demonstration was organized in Switzerland to urge the end of World War I. On March 8, 1917, in one of the most famous International Women's Day events, Russian women led the strike "for bread and peace" in St. Petersburg. This strike merged with other riots that were taking place in the city and later became known as the February Revolution (at the time, Russians were using the Julian calendar, making the dates of the February Revolution February 24-28, while the dates were March 8-12 on the Gregorian calendar used by the rest of Europe.) The February Revolution forced Czar Nicholas II to abdicate, and March 8 became a socialist holiday to celebrate the "heroic woman worker."

International Women's Day was celebrated in the U.S. in the 1910s and 1920s, but didn't really catch on until the women's movement in the 1960s. By this time, the date lost most of its Socialist connotations and instead became a day to call attention to gender inequities, and to honor women's achievements.

Now, nearly one hundred years after that first "seething trembling sea of women" held demonstrations across Europe, women everywhere continue to be inspired by the unrelenting commitment of the women who came before us. Whether the day was about women fighting for their equal rights, calling for peace, demanding an end to abuse, or honoring our achievements, International Women's Day is a shining example of how powerful people, male or female, are when they join together and fight for what they believe is right.

International Women's Day is now sponsored by the U.N. and honored as an official holiday in countries ranging from Armenia to Vietnam - all because of the women who had the courage to unite their voices in one powerful chorus, singing together for the issues they care deeply about, the issues that impact women everywhere: equality, health, freedom from poverty, economic opportunity, and so much more.