Originally published in The New Security Beat

In a meeting with business leaders in Lahore in late October, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton pointedly warned of the potential economic impacts of Pakistan's rapidly growing population: "There has to be...in any plan for your own economic future, a hard look at where you're going to get the resources to meet these needs. You do have somewhere between 170 and 180 million people. Your population is projected to be about 300 million as the current birth rates, which are among the highest in the world, continue," she said.

First published in The New Security Beat

Every day it seems the headlines bring new worries about the future of Pakistan. But among the many challenges confronting the nation--including a growing Taliban insurgency--one significant problem remains largely undiscussed: its rapidly expanding population.

I have just concluded a nine day visit to Uganda to research the connections between population dynamics and development. This connection has been made by PAI and others on the global level but we have yet to discern how this plays out in individual countries. Uganda has one of the fastest growing populations in the world and 50 percent of its population is younger than 15 years old. How do you educate all these children? On paper, the intentions are very good. The government has supported free primary school for quite some time already and more than two-thirds of the population is literate. Recently, a bill that will allow free secondary education was passed by the Ugandan parliament.

In an op-ed published in The Washington Post on January 4, Neil Howe and Richard Jackson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) sound the alarm about the "massive disruption" the world may face in the 2020s due to population aging. Howe and Jackson co-authored The Graying of the Great Powers (see New Security Beat review), a 2008 CSIS report that elaborates on the supposed "political warfare" that will break out as a result of aging in the developed world, accompanied by turmoil in developing countries with young populations.

Last week I had the good fortune of being in Mexico for a PAI study tour of the country's family planning and reproductive health (FP/RH) programs. Thanks in part to twenty years of U.S. FP/RH assistance (from the mid-1970s to the late-1990s), Mexico has made major improvements in the health of women and children and its demographic situation.  Although challenges on these issues certainly remain, particularly in terms of the needs of its adolescent and indigenous populations, Mexico is a clear success story when it comes to the effectiveness of investments in voluntary family planning programs.  

Consider a few statistics that underscore the progress Mexico has made.  In 1970, a few years before Mexico initiated its national family planning program -- with significant assistance from the United States and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) -- less than a quarter of women used contraceptives, average fertility rates were about seven children per woman, infant mortality rates were 69.0 per 1,000 live births, and average life expectancy was 62 years of age. 

Elizabeth Leahy is a Research Associate with PAI.

CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden’s recent identification of population growth as one of three top destabilizing trends currently facing the world has received extensive media coverage. The director’s comments seem to have taken many by surprise by singling out demographic trends, rather than religious extremism or the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as meriting a top spot on the intelligence community’s radar screen.

Speaking in the Landon Lecture Series at Kansas State University, the same forum where Secretary of Defense Robert Gates last fall advocated for increasing the use of “soft power,” Gen. Hayden highlighted the challenges that will be faced by some of the poorest and weakest states in the world—among them Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Yemen—in providing for the needs of their citizens, particularly young people, in the coming years. The populations of these countries are projected to double and in some cases triple by mid-century, magnifying already heavy demands on health care, education facilities and the job market.

Introduction: Staff from Population Action International are presenting “The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World” at several events in Europe.  Join Tyler LePard, PAI’s Media Manager, for an inside look!

After the journalist workshop, the PAI team headed for lunch with DSW (Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevolkerung). Along the way, we passed the “Memorial for the Murdered Jews of Europe” (Denkmal fur die Ermordeten Juden Europas). It’s an eerie grid made with concrete blocks of differing heights that takes up a whole city block.  The somberness of the subject contrasted sharply with children running and playing among the rows.

Introduction: Staff from Population Action International are presenting “The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World” at several events in Europe. Join Tyler LePard, PAI’s Media Manager, for an inside look!

On Thursday morning, the PAI team and DSW colleagues walked to the first event through the heart of Berlin. Eastern Berlin is full of newly constructed and restored or rebuilt buildings. The past couple of decades have brought many changes to Berlin, leaving little sign of The Wall that divided the city. We walked along Friedrichstrasse and Unter den Linden (two main thoroughfares), past several embassies, the Reichstag and the Brandenburg Gate to reach the building of the Representative of the Federal State Lower Saxony for our morning event.

Introduction: Staff from Population Action International are presenting “The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World” ” at several events in Europe. Join Tyler LePard, PAI’s Media Manager, for an inside look!

The Population Action International team left The Hague on Wednesday morning, excited about the success of “The Shape of Things to Come” at the Peace Palace. After the panel briefing, a senior ministry official told us that he was going to use the report in a briefing for Parliament and encourage them to make demographics a key priority in development assistance and to increase funding for sexual and reproductive health programs and services. Hooray!

In the Netherlands, I was particularly impressed by the number of bicycles I saw. A couple of us in the PAI office bike to work, but it looks like everyone in the Netherlands rides bicycles. It’s an environmentally friendly way to get around – and fun too!

Our first stop on the European tour was The Netherlands.  We were invited by the World Population Fund to present “The Shape of Things to Come.”  Amy Coen, Claudia Kennedy, Tod Preston, Liz Leahy and I arrived in The Hague on December 2, met WPF staff for dinner and got ready for our events.

After the documentary screening at the Ministry Wednesday morning, we traveled to the Peace Palace, a beautiful and prestigious venue.  Before the official event began, we met with Rob Vrecken, a reporter for De Volkskrant. Each member of our PAI team contributed their expertise to the interview, highlighting key findings and recommendations from “The Shape of Things to Come” and its implications for policy, development, and security, as well as the report’s connections with other aspects of PAI’s work. 

The two-hour panel briefing began with a welcome from Frans Baneke, the Director of the World Population Fund (WPF). Claudia Kennedy (Lt. General U.S. Army Retired and PAI Board Member) introduced the report. She said, “The international development community – and organizations like WPF and PAI – have long recognized that improving the well-being of individuals aren’t just investments in people; they’re investments in creating a more peaceful and developed world.”

Introduction: Staff from Population Action International are presenting “The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World” at several events in Europe.  Join Tyler LePard, PAI’s Media Manager, for an inside look!
 

Our first stop on the European tour was The Netherlands. We were invited by the World Population Fund (WPF) to present “The Shape of Things to Come.” Amy Coen, Claudia Kennedy, Tod Preston, Liz Leahy and I arrived in The Hague on December 2, met WPF staff for dinner and got ready for today.

Before our event, we were invited to attend a screening of a new documentary at the Dutch Foreign Ministry.

One of the filmmakers was present to introduce her provocative film about rape in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)...